luni, 3 mai 2010

SHORTer than you think!

Dupa luni de zile in care piata a fost Bullish desi toate semnalele aratau ca ursii ar trebui sa castige, a venit momentul in care cineva din Mainstream incepe sa scrie despre ce se intampla. Vorbeam in posturile precedente despre cele mai mari speculatii "Ever", speculatii care prind bine si in Romania, si despre cum unii castiga IMENS din acele speculatii. Eu ma refeream in principal la macroeconomie dar nici domeniul Micro nu a ramas nelovit. Nationalizarea pierderilor de pana acum si acordarea de ajutor "sarmanilor" obtin profituri imense pe care si le distribuie ca bonus au facut ca hazardul moral deja existent in economie si care a cauzat criza (conform asociatiei economistilor americani)sa continue, ba chiar sa sporeasca!

Aici este un extras dintr-un articol Financial Times, preluat intai de Dan si apoi de Flavian.
Articolul este dificil de gasit din pacate avand in vedere ca FT vrea bani pe el dar macar partial este pe net.

Ce urmeaza? Pai daca au inceput discutiile referitoare la asa ceva, nimic bun... cel putin nu pe termen scurt. Pe termen lung putem vedea urmatoarea perioada ca pe una in care fie vom mai scapa de cei care se prezinta ca "lucratorii Domnului", fie ei vor ajunge sa ne trimita pe multi in o sclavie crunta... si hai sa spunem ca datele problemei nu arata foarte bine pentru noi!

Articolul despre care spuneam:
The outperformance of risk assets over the past year suggests investors appear to believe that all credit problems have been solved – but nothing could be further from the truth, says Leigh Skene at Lombard Street Research.

“Rising stock markets and narrowing credit spreads depend on buyers being more anxious to buy than the sellers are to sell,” he says. “So who are the enthusiastic buyers of risk assets?”

Surprisingly, says Mr Skene, surveys show that the usual investors in major rallies – pension funds, hedge funds and retail investors – have not been net buyers of equities. And he says the most likely explanation for this anomaly in the biggest stock market rally since the 1930s is that major investment banks are the anxious buyers.

“Their buying would appear to be for one of two reasons. Firstly because they think the authorities will prevail in their (so far unsuccessful) efforts to inflate their way out of debt liquidation; or secondly because they are too big to fail and so can afford to take a huge gamble that enough buying will convince others to rush in and buy their inventory of risk assets at even higher prices.

Sursa: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x4360485

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